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The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don’t know, now with a new section called “On Robustness and Fragility.”A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.

Publication Date : 2007-04-17

Authors : Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher : Random House Publishing Group

Number of Pages : 480

ISBN 10 : 1400063515

ISBN 13 : 9781400063512

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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Publication date 2007 Topics Psychology, Theory Collection opensource Language English A BLAC K SWA N is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the

PDF The Black Swan: The impact of the highly improbable.

The phrase \Black Swan" (arising earlier in the di erent context of Popperian falsi cation) is here de ned as an event characterized [p. xviii] by rarity, extreme impact, and retrospec- tive (though not prospective) predictability, and Taleb's thesis is that such events have much greater e ect, in nancial markets and the broader world of human a...

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PDF The Black Swan - The Economist

Economics & Politics Industries Intercultural Mgt. Concepts & Trends • "Black swans" are highly consequential but unlikely events that are easily explainable - but only in retrospect. • Black...

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (PDF) - 2.91 MB @ PDF Room

Swan The Black 2016 • 552 Pages • 2.91 MB • English + black swan + the black swan Posted April 14, 2020 • Submitted by urosenbaum Buy on Amazon Explore PDF Download PDF Convert to... View on Amazon Read PDF online READ ONLINE Summary of Nassim Nicholas Taleb Page 1 Page 2

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